statistical proof

by **on tilt** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:42 pm

so titan sends me an email saying they've dropped $15 in my account. haven't played on titan in almost a year, but i figure i'll see what i can do with it.

play some low limit poker

6 handed table

log 147 hands

i won 8

am i that bad a player.....no

am i that f'n unlucky....you bet your sweet ass, i am

i'm ready to retire.

**Sponsor**

by **Vanman** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:09 am

Did you win 8 bucks or 8 dollars. If its 8 dollars thats pretty good for 147 hands at the low levels it probably 4 to 8 BB/100 hands. If its 8 hands you wont out of 147 thats pretty good too, let think about that for a minute.

Out of 147 hands you should probably see 30 flops or so but we will say 30. Out of 30 flops 80% will miss you so that leaves 6 flops that you do connect with.

Another interesting statistics is you probably will sit between 50% and 60% win at showdown so out of 6 flops that you continue to showdown with you should have only won 4 max.

If you add the 10% bluff rule there is another hand. So statistically speaking you should have won 5 hands at showdown, yet you won 8. I figure thats pretty damn good.

Add a few preflop raises in there and now your looking at 8ish hands.
Looks good to me...

by **TommyTwoToes** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:14 am

i think he was saying he won 8 hands ...

I dont think it was a winning session for him.

by **Vanman** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:51 am

But realisitically how many hands do you expect to win out of 147? Last night I played 4 tables for 2 hours and netted 11.00 the other night 4 tables for 2 hours for .88 cents. Sometimes it just runs that way.

Last night I was in 7 big pots and I lost 5 of them. I also played 600 hands.

I flopped a straight, lost to river FH
I flopped a Set lost to four card str8
My QQ ran into AA and he played passively
I had my over pair get hit by a set.
My two pair beat by a str8 and I was holding one of the cards he needed to make the str8.

I also flopped 2 FH and go no action.
I had AA 3 times NA
KK 3 times no action on 2, the other I stacked QQ
QQ 3 times once ran up against AA others no action
JJ 4 times no action.

The reality is I am amazed I won 11 bucks, but shit happens.

by **TommyTwoToes** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:02 am

on tilt wrote: your sweet ass

well i am glad that someone finally noticed my ass.

by **on tilt** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 9:19 am

well, the way i see it....at a 6 handed table. i should win about 1 out ever 6. so....147 divided by 6 is 24.5. now i don't play a lot of starting hands so we can expect that to drop a little.

anyway, i won 8. for an average of 1 every 18+ hands

meanwhile, the rest of the table averaged almost 28 winning hands per person in the same session.

it's better to be lucky than good.....and if you're unlucky, you're just screwed

by **LAYGO** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:52 am

I was playing on CD Poker & it's sick. I won 2 of my first 2 hands with a set & a boat. BB/SB.

44 on a Q-J-4-x-x board.

52 on a 5-5-7-2-x board.

by **LAYGO** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:01 am

I had made the next level @ CD Poker & when I lost my buy-ins, I closed it. Then I get an email saying they deposited $10 inmy account.

So I went to play .25/.50 for all $10 & lost all but $6. Then I Moved down to .05/.10.

Then I had 3 good sessions. One time I bought in for $1 when I thought I was buying in for $4 & I won a large hand 3 ways & was at $4.75. I was like WTF? I bought in for more than that.

I turn that $1 into $12.

I had bought in for $5 on another & cashed out $19.

I did $4 & turned that into $19 as well & all told, I had $40 on that $10.

I lost one $6 session last night when my 67 on a 6-7-8 board ran into 88.

by **gn2056** » Fri Aug 11, 2006 1:02 pm

so many donks at those tables that if you play tight you often have to get rid of alot of hands you would like to see a flop with, and when you do you realize you are up against complete rags half the time, but they hit the straights and sucker flushes anyways.